Stock market will develop but not make rapid leaps: expert

Mr Nghia started the interview with the press by saying that the stock market will see further increases. The P/E (price on equity) index is now 38, quite high if compared to the normal level (12-17 times higher). However, the stock market will still see further increases since Vietnam is an emerging market, while the international capital flow is moving towards Asia. A watchdog specializing in supervising the financial market will be set up in the near future, which will not directly interfere in the market, but will only support the market development. Vietnam’s stock market has not been so hot that it needs to be restrained. Do you mean that Vietnam will have a watchdog to supervise financial activities? The Government plans to set up a committee in charge of supervising the financial market operation (securities, banking and insurance). The committee will take remote supervision over the management agencies like the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). SBV is also considering setting up a supervision and inspection agency, which will be the result of the reunification of the departments with the same functions. Is it true that the establishment of the financial supervision committee aims to receive the new capital flows and assist the development of the stock market? The international capital is now flowing into Asia. In Asia, China and Vietnam prove to be the two most attractive destinations. Vietnam’s stock market will develop quickly for two reasons. First, Vietnam plans to equitze 70 groups and big generations. If one third of the 70 units list on the bourse, it would be enough to make the total supplies in the market increase sharply. I think this will happen from July towards the years end. The profuse supplies will make the market less hot. Second, there will be several hundreds of foreign investors coming to Vietnam. Many famous financial consultancy groups and banks will be present on the market. Their clients are big investors, who will ask them to do research about Vietnam. There will be a big capital flow into Vietnam’s securities. The stock market will develop strongly, and it will need to be supervised in order to avoid sudden changes, that can cause shocks. You seem to be very optimistic. But why does SBV plan to control the commercial banks that make investment in securities if you believe that the stock market will develop? The Government has been aware of the need to keep the stock market in stable operation. Any troubles in the stock market will directly influence the monetary market. It is the SBV’s task to guarantee the capital raised from the public. Commercial banks have been advised to think carefully before making decisions on funding securities trading deals. For example, when the P/E is three times higher than the normal level, banks should give the loans valued at 1/3 of the securities’ market values. If banks keeps cautious with the loans mortgaged by securities, it would be safer for investors, the stock market and banks as well. Do you mean that SBV will not ask banks to tighten the funding of securities trading deals? No, not to tighten the loaning to securities traders, but to protect them, give advice in order to avoid risks. Foreign investors always are methodical when making investments, even if they just make short term investment. Meanwhile, domestic investors buy or sell securities just by feelings or follow the moves of someone else. It is very risky. Will the Government consider raising the maximum foreign ownership ratio in local banks from the current 30% limit? From April 2007, foreign bankers will have the right to set up 100% foreign owned bank entities in Vietnam. However, I think that many foreign banks will be set up in the first years after Vietnam joins the WTO as they still expect that the 30% foreign ownership ratio will be raised. You may see that the current laws allow local banks to get M&A (merge and acquisition), but aim to prevent foreign banks from swallowing domestic banks.

Source: Thời báo Kinh tế Sài Gòn